Free Bet Blackjack Basic Strategy
Posted By admin On 11/04/22Have you ever thought that you could get an advantage over the house just by altering your bet sizes or what you bet on at the right times? Many betting strategies exist that claim to be able to do just that. They claim that by changing your bets based on recent results, you can gain an edge over the house in a game (like blackjack) that normally has a house edge for the casino.
- What Is Free Bet Blackjack
- Play Free Bet Blackjack Online
- Free Bet Blackjack Basic Strategy Tactics
- How To Bet On Blackjack
How to Use Your Free Blackjack Bets. Here is a problem that many players encounter when they are using free money to play blackjack. They think that because the money is free they can afford to play loose. They use hunches instead of basic blackjack strategy, forget about card counting, and make other mistakes. Pretty soon the free money is. Basic strategy is not enough! We get emails from people all the time talking about how they downloaded our blackjack charts, took them to a casino, and won some money. That’s great news for them, but it could have easily gone the other way. Basic strategy cannot overcome the house edge even if you get lucky with it from time to time. If you want to make the best bets at blackjack in my opinion: Play blackjack games that have the best player-favorable mix of playing rules. Always play every hand accurately using the basic playing strategy. Bet more only when you know you have the edge. Don’t play on any table that uses a CSM. Don’t make the insurance or even money bet.
Are these systems for real? Well, that depends. It might be best to divide betting strategies into two categories, just to separate the effective methods from those that are ineffective (and sometimes sold as scams). Any betting strategy that claims to be able to structure bets that all have a house edge and somehow make you a winner is bound to disappoint you, because it simply isn’t possible to take multiple bets with negative expectations and come out with an overall positive expectation. We’ll call these betting systems. On the other hand, betting strategies that offer you ways to maximize your advantage or limit your risk of going broke when you already have the edge can be an important part of a professional blackjack player’s overall strategy.
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Betting Systems
Over the years, many people have tried to come up with betting systems that could beat various casino games. They appeal to a lot of players, especially those who don’t understand the math behind gambling. Often, they make some sort of intuitive sense, which leads people to come up with reasons to believe that their system must work. However, as we said earlier, no betting system can turn a series of bets with a house edge into a system that has an edge for the player.
Martingale System
Let’s take a look at one common betting system and see how it works – and why it doesn’t work.
The Martingale System is probably the best known casino gambling system in the world, and also the most popular. It is incredibly simple to use, and seems to offer a “can’t lose” way of playing games that offer bets that are around 50/50 propositions.
In the Martingale System, the player begins by making a small bet – usually the table minimum. If the player wins, they make that same small bet again. If they lose, they instead double their bet. If the player loses again, they double their bet again. The player continues doubling their bet until they win, at which point they revert to their original small bet size.
This means that in each iteration of the Martingale, the player will win the minimum bet size. For instance, a player might win their original $5 bet, thus profiting $5. Or they might have the following sequence:
Lose $5
Lose $10
Lose $20
Win $40
Meaning they would lose $35 but then win $40, thus coming out $5 ahead yet again.
So, why doesn’t this work? Eventually, you will hit a string of losses that will be catastrophic, wiping out your bankroll and any small profits you’ve made so far. Many players believe a long string of losses like that is unlikely, and they’re right; however, it will happen often enough that the casino retains the house edge they had at the beginning of the game. Table limits make this occur even faster, meaning you’ll quickly hit a point where you simply can’t double your bet anymore.
For instance, take a table with a minimum bet of $5 and a maximum bet of $500. The player can double six times:
$5
$10
$20
$40
$80
$160
$320
After that, the player cannot double to $640. For the moment, let’s do an example with single-zero roulette, since the math is easier. If the player makes a bet on one of the even money bets – say, betting on black – they have 18 ways to win, and 19 ways to lose. This means the player will lose 51.3% of the time. This also means that at any given time, there’s about a 0.94% chance that they’ll run into a 7-spin losing streak, putting them in the position of not being able to double. That’s only one time in 106 (we’re rounding a bit, but that’s roughly accurate), but that’s still not good enough to make the Martingale work! The player will make $525 in the 105 times they win, but they’ll lose $635 the one time they hit a 7-spin losing streak.
The math for blackjack is a bit more complicated, since not all bets pay even money, you’ll sometimes have to spend extra money to double down or split, and the player wins fan less than half of the hands (especially when taking pushes into account). However, the principle remains the same – the player cannot overcome a series of bets that have a house edge simply by creatively structuring their bets.
Betting Strategies and the Kelly Criterion
On the other hand, can betting strategies help you when you already have an advantage? The answer is emphatically yes! In fact, betting strategy is critical for anyone who wants to be a profitable blackjack player. For instance, card counting relies heavily on betting strategy, as the player must bet more when he has the advantage, and less (or not at all) when things swing in the dealer’s favor.
But betting strategy can be much more complex than that. While it’s obvious that players should bet more when they have an edge, it’s harder to figure out how much they should bet on a typical hand. Figuring that out requires the player to take into account the size of their bankroll, as well as the size of their edge over the house.
One method of figuring out the optimal bet size is to use the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is an attempt to maximize the rate at which a player can make money when they have an edge without having a significant risk of ruin. The formula is basically as follows:
f = (bp-q)/b
f = the portion of the player’s bankroll they should wager on each bet.
b = the odds the player is receiving on each wager (b to 1).
p = the probability of winning the wager.
q = the probability of losing the wager.
For instance, imagine a game where the player receives even money odds (1-1), but feels as though they have a 55% chance of winning each hand. This would make the formula look like this:
f = (1*.55 – .45)/1
f = .1
In this case, the Kelly Criterion suggests betting .1, or 10% of the player’s bankroll, on each bet in order to maximize the growth-rate of the player’s bankroll. Of course, players rarely have such a huge edge, and blackjack is a bit more complex since the player sometimes wins differing amounts, and sometimes is forced to wager additional money on a hand. We’ll go into more detail on how to use the Kelly Criterion when playing blackjack in our article on Bankroll Management.
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Introduction
Free Bet Blackjack is a blackjack variant by game inventor Geoff Hall. The twist to this one is the player doesn't have to risk his own money when splitting or doubling (most of the time). It is like playing with a generous boyfriend at the table who makes all the supplemental bets for you and lets you keep the winnings. What is the catch? Like in Geoff's other game, Blackjack Switch, if the dealer gets a 22, all bets left standing push.
The game opened for business on June 20, 2012 at the Golden Nugget. I went down for the game's debut and found the table full of people enjoying the game. The strategy is simpler and offers more doubles and splits than conventional blackjack. Gamblers who find the basic strategy of conventional blackjack too complicated to memorize may take relief in the simplicity of Free Bet Blackjack.
Rules
The rules have changed since the game launched at the Golden Nugget. It is my understand that the rules below are now the norm. The game is based on standard blackjack, with the following rules:
- Six decks
- Dealer hits soft 17's
- Blackjacks pay 3 to 2
- Double after split allowed
- Double on two cards only
- Re-split pairs up to four hands, including aces
- No surrender
The game introduces two major rule changes:
- 'Free Doubles' on hard totals of two-card total of 9, 10, or 11. Regular doubles are still allowed on all other two-card hands. With a 'free double,' the player's original wager is matched with a 'free bet' button and the player receives one additional card. At the end of the hand:
- If the dealer wins, the player loses his original wager only.
- If the hand results in a push, the player gets back his original wager only.
- Otherwise, if the player wins, the player gets back his original wager plus winnings equal to double that wager.
- 'Free Splits' on all pairs except 10's. With a 'free split,' the player's two cards are divided into two one-card hands. The player's original wager is placed with the first hand and a 'free bet' button is placed with the second hand. The player plays out each hand one at a time and is entitled to a 'free double' or 'free split' on both hands. For winning hands, each 'free bet' button is replaced with real chips equaling the original wager. On hands resulting in a player loss or push, the dealer takes back the 'free bet' button.
- Dealer pushes on 22. If the player has 21 or less and the dealer busts with 22, then the player's wager is a push.
Basic Strategy
Strategy depends on whether you are playing a real money bet or a free bet. There is a difference because a push is just as bad as a loss on a Free Bet, thus causing a more aggressive strategy. The following three tables show the strategy for a real money hand, free bet hand, and pairs respectively.
If you remember just one thing about the strategy, accept every free double and free split opportunity.
House Edge
The house edge under the standard rules above is 1.04%.
Rule Variants
Following are the effects of some possible rule variants. The effects are the change in the player's expected return. The figures below with a (SH) were taken with permission from Discount Gambling. The ones with a (Wiz) were calculated by me. It is interesting that the greater the number of decks, the better the odds for the player, which is the opposite of conventional blackjack. I assume it is because there is more free-splitting with more decks, due to a lesser effect of non-replacement.
- Free doubles with three or more cards (DG): +0.66%.
- Dealer stands on soft 17 (DG): +0.31%.
- Late surrender allowed (DG): +0.21%.
- One deck: -0.14% (Wiz).
- Two decks: -0.06% (Wiz).
- Eight decks: +0.01% (Wiz,DG).
- No re-splitting aces (DG): -0.08%.
- No free re-splits on a pair of fours (DG): -0.27%.
- No re-splitting 2-9: -0.32% (DG).
- No double or free-double after a split (DG): -0.70%.
- Blackjack pays 6 to 5: -1.36% (Wiz).
Pot of Gold
I have heard reports that some casinos offer a side bet called Pot of Gold, which is based on the number of Free Bet tokens the player accumulates per initial hand. The Washington Gambling Commission lists two Pot of Gold pay tables. Following is my analysis of both of them. These tables were based on a random simulation. The lower right cells show a house edge of 5.77% on pay table 1 and 4.64% on pay table 2.
Pot of Gold — Pay Table 1
| Tokens | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1000 | 0.000002 | 0.002026 |
| 6 | 300 | 0.000027 | 0.008140 |
| 5 | 100 | 0.000194 | 0.019445 |
| 4 | 60 | 0.000847 | 0.050799 |
| 3 | 30 | 0.003866 | 0.115973 |
| 2 | 10 | 0.013488 | 0.134884 |
| 1 | 3 | 0.148155 | 0.444466 |
| 0 | -1 | 0.833420 | -0.833420 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.057686 |
Pot of Gold — Pay Table 2
| Tokens | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 100 | 0.000002 | 0.000203 |
| 6 | 100 | 0.000027 | 0.002713 |
| 5 | 100 | 0.000194 | 0.019445 |
| 4 | 50 | 0.000847 | 0.042333 |
| 3 | 30 | 0.003866 | 0.115973 |
| 2 | 12 | 0.013488 | 0.161861 |
| 1 | 3 | 0.148155 | 0.444466 |
| 0 | -1 | 0.833420 | -0.833420 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.046426 |
The player can lower the house edge on the Pot of Gold by splitting fives instead of doubling, at the detriment of the primary wager. If the player splits fives the house edge on the Pot of Gold will be 2.75% under Pay Table 1 and 1.48% under Pay Table 2. Splitting fives, instead of doubling, will increase the house edge on the base wager by 0.15%.
Acknowledgement
What Is Free Bet Blackjack
I would like to thank Geoff Hall, the inventor, for his cooperation with the rules and sharing the math report. This report is based on a combination of work between Stephen How and me. We are in close agreement on the house edge. The basic strategy and some of the effects of rule variations are the work of Stephen How.
Internal Links
Play Free Bet Blackjack Online
- Original rule card. Please note that doubling on three or more cards is no longer allowed but free splits of fours is. Overall, the old rules were better, of course. Table game rules seldom get better for the player.
Outside Links
- Free Bet Blackjack page at Discount Gambling.
- Free Bet Blackjack Facebook page.